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Author: Subject: Turnbull's future
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[*] posted on 14-10-2018 at 04:54 PM


IF the Japanese were chosen, following failure of the French talks for whatever reason, it'll still take ANY government 2-3 years to renegotiate a deal.

The question of Nukes should come to the fore again, but stands little chance of adoption under Labor.............IMHO of course.

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[*] posted on 14-10-2018 at 11:41 PM


Polls now have a 2.5% swing toward Labor. If the Coalition can go more than three consecutive weeks without crippling infighting, they may still have a chance of winning the next election, assuming the Nationals don't get overrun by neo Nazis along the way...:lol:



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[*] posted on 15-10-2018 at 09:30 AM


Alt.Right strikes again...............:no:
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[*] posted on 16-10-2018 at 11:17 PM
Scott Morrison says it's 'regrettable' his senators backed Pauline Hanson's 'it's OK to be white' motion


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-16/morrison-regrets-sena...

Just when you thought things couldn't get any worse...

Quote:
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has described as "regrettable" his own senators' decision to back a motion declaring "it is OK to be white", while the Coalition's leader in the Senate has apologised and blamed an "administrative error".

The motion, moved by One Nation leader Pauline Hanson on Monday, was narrowly defeated 28 votes to 31, despite the Coalition's backing.

It called on the Senate to acknowledge the "deplorable rise of anti-white racism and attacks on Western civilisation" and that "it is OK to be white" — a phrase commonly used by white supremacists.

Facing an almost immediate backlash, Attorney-General Christian Porter, whose office directed Coalition senators to vote in favour of the motion, defended the move on social media.




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[*] posted on 20-10-2018 at 06:33 PM
Wentworth by-election results shows Kerryn Phelps is winner, says Antony Green


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-20/wentworth-by-election...

Quote:
ABC election analyst Antony Green has taken just over an hour to call the Wentworth by-election in favour of independent candidate Kerryn Phelps.

On a disastrous night for the Liberal Party, early results showed a swing of more than 20 per cent against its candidate Dave Sharma.

Counting is continuing, however with almost 10 cent of the vote counted, Mr Sharma secured only 35 per cent of first preferences.

The seat has been held by the Liberal Party, and its predecessors, since Federation.

Mr Green said the early results were "terrible" for the Liberal Party.

More to come.




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[*] posted on 20-10-2018 at 06:42 PM


The next logical question is now that the government has lost its majority, how long do you think it will last before it loses a vote of no confidence and an election has to be held?



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[*] posted on 20-10-2018 at 11:25 PM


Quote: Originally posted by ARH  
The next logical question is now that the government has lost its majority, how long do you think it will last before it loses a vote of no confidence and an election has to be held?


Has to be held sooner, rather than later now you’d think? They are a shot duck already but they will be decimated if they let the crazies on the cross- bench have any say in government policy all the way through til May next year...




In a low speed post-merge manoeuvring fight, with a high off-boresight 4th generation missile and Helmet Mounted Display, the Super Hornet will be a very difficult opponent for any current Russian fighter, even the Su-27/30
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[*] posted on 12-11-2018 at 12:33 AM


Much to my surprise, the government are getting hammered in the latest polls.



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[*] posted on 24-11-2018 at 07:36 PM


The Liberals have just been annihilated in the Victorian state election.

Things don't bode well for the Coalition in the Federal election.




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[*] posted on 24-11-2018 at 09:51 PM


Jeebus! Not Short-ass and his idiots..............out of the frying pan and into the fire!
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[*] posted on 24-11-2018 at 10:01 PM


To think the polls were predicting the possibility of a hung parliament...



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[*] posted on 24-11-2018 at 10:05 PM


I really don't bother with polls anymore..............:thumbdown:
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[*] posted on 27-11-2018 at 01:22 PM


The Liberals have taken yet another hit, Banks has just left the party and is sitting on the crossbench.



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[*] posted on 27-11-2018 at 05:52 PM


At this point it is no longer a case of if the Liberals lose the next election, which seems to be set for May, given the timing of the budget. It's now a matter of how long will they have to spend in opposition before they become a viable government again.

The Liberals desperately need a generational shift throughout the entire party structure at this point. Better policies won't help them at this point, they need better people.




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[*] posted on 27-11-2018 at 07:01 PM


Totally agree..........
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[*] posted on 27-11-2018 at 07:35 PM


Quote: Originally posted by ARH  
At this point it is no longer a case of if the Liberals lose the next election, which seems to be set for May, given the timing of the budget. It's now a matter of how long will they have to spend in opposition before they become a viable government again.

The Liberals desperately need a generational shift throughout the entire party structure at this point. Better policies won't help them at this point, they need better people.


Someone like a Howard has to come through and unite all the various factions. Until that happens, they are completely rooted.

Banks left today and had a go at the right faction on the way out.

Friggin useless the lot of them...




In a low speed post-merge manoeuvring fight, with a high off-boresight 4th generation missile and Helmet Mounted Display, the Super Hornet will be a very difficult opponent for any current Russian fighter, even the Su-27/30
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[*] posted on 29-11-2018 at 09:31 PM


It's not like Shorten actually has workable policies, he's peddling class warfare claptrap and promising a bottomless money pit to pay for everything, funded by increased taxes on 'the rich', which he defines as anyone earming anything above what he defines as a living wage or anyone not likely to vote for him (retirees for example)

A halfway competent Coallition should be able to cane them, but they are too internally divided that they currently couldn't organise a root in a brothel.




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[*] posted on 1-12-2018 at 01:27 PM


The below is from the NY Times Weekly Australian Newsletter that their local journo publishes........some of it's trite crap, but occasionally you get something worth a read like below.

Letter 83

Australia’s ‘Hollowed Out’ Politics, Explained

By DAMIEN CAVE


Prime Minister Scott Morrison of Australia during Question Time in the House of Representatives at Parliament House in Canberra, in September. Mick Tsikas/EPA, via Shutterstock

The Australia Letter is a weekly newsletter from our Australia bureau chief. Sign up to get it by email. Here’s where to find all our Oceania coverage.
______
Labor won a landslide victory in Victoria, Julia Banks abandoned the Liberal Party, the federal budget will be delivered early and Parliament will sit for only 10 days in the first eight months of 2019 — just another messy week in Australian politics.

What does it all add up to?

Over lunch a few weeks ago, Sam Roggeveen, director of the Lowy Institute’s international security program, told me that Australia’s main political parties were in trouble. This week, I went back to Sam for some additional insight.

So what do you make of the week’s head-spinning political developments?

They say history happens slowly and then all at once. I think the convulsions we are seeing in Australian politics right now — in fact , since John Howard was defeated in 2007 — are a culmination of decades-long trends that center on the slow decline of our two big political parties.

The more popular explanations — the acceleration of the news cycle, the social media information bubble, the rise of populism — may play a part, but the big factor is the transformation of our political parties from mass movements to professionalized and hollowed-out political machines.

This is a common phenomenon in Western democracies. With party membership (and union membership) in decline, both major parties lack a real social base, a group of people that defines who the party represents and what it stands for.

The two major parties remain powerful because they have engineered the political and electoral system to their benefit, but that arrangement is now straining against the decline in their vote share.

Right now, it is the Liberals who are suffering, but Labor has had its turn and it will have another.

One headline I saw called Australian politics “fractured.” How would you describe it?

I would say hollowed out. There’s a void at the center of our politics because the public and the political class have both retreated. Again, this is happening in all Western democracies: people have stopped joining political parties and civic organizations with a political voice, and the parties have responded by making politics more elite and professional.

For most Australians, politics these days is a spectator sport rather than a participatory sport.

And the trend is self-reinforcing — when a major scandal now breaks, the public distrust in politics is so severe that often the first instinct of politicians is not to address it themselves but to call a Royal Commission.

There are also many independents emerging. Kerryn Phelps, the independent who won Malcolm Turnbull’s seat, gave her inaugural speech this week in Parliament. Is this part of a larger trend?

The prospects for independent candidates and small parties are better than ever. At the last federal election, nearly 25 percent of voters gave their primary vote to an independent or small party, and that figure is on a slow upward trend as the primary vote of the two major parties declines.

I know the conventional wisdom right now is for a thumping Labor victory at the next election, but remember that Labor has won only one federal election outright in the last 20 years.

I would not be at all shocked to see Labor form a minority government after the next election because dissatisfaction with the government will benefit independents and minor parties rather than Labor.

In fact, minority government might be the new norm in Australian federal politics.

That’s not necessarily a disaster — Julia Gillard would argue with some justification that the minority government she led got an awful lot done, and many Western democracies function perfectly well that way.

The question will be how the major parties behave as they decline. Can they adjust to this new norm?

I was at a council meeting in small town Tasmania this week and a lot of the people I talked to said they’re more distrustful of politicians than at any time in their lives. Julie Bishop says the public “can pick a fake” and that Australian politicians need to be more honest. Do you have a suggestion for how to fix this trust problem?

I’m sure Julie Bishop has a point, but the fault does not lie only with politicians. The public needs to take its share of the blame, too. If you feel strongly that politicians are not trustworthy, then muck in. Get involved and change things!

Unfortunately, however, I don’t think the cynicism about politicians actually motivates the public to get involved. In fact, it may just reinforce the retreat I talked about.

Now, for the most part, that has not been terribly damaging — O.K., politics is hollowed out and Australians are deeply cynical, but by global standards the place is still pretty well run, and economically we are in enviable shape.
The risk is that politics becomes so broken that the voters, who are largely disengaged, are more or less forced to intervene to fix things.

That’s what happened in the U.K. with Brexit. Britain’s relationship with the E.U. was a white-hot political issue within the Tories, but it’s not as if the British public was clamoring for a vote on that subject. It was only because the Tories could not solve their internal dispute that it was “externalized.”

Essentially, the Tory leadership said to the public: “We can’t fix this — you sort it out!”

The expectation, of course, was that the public was just as invested in Britain’s European future as the vast majority of the political class was. That turned out to be dead wrong.

What might that look like in Australia? Is there an Australian Brexit on the horizon?

Well, in a sense this has already happened. The Liberal Party was hopelessly split on the question of same-sex marriage, so it called on the public to intervene.

If you’re looking for a more direct parallel with Brexit, well, what about immigration, which was a key issue in the Brexit campaign? Australia’s commitment to high levels of immigration is pretty well entrenched across the two major parties, but in the past leaders of both parties have flirted with the argument that Australia is “full.”

If one of the two big parties went to an election on that kind of platform — not just a cut in migration but a sustained policy of zero net population increase — Australia would effectively be faced with a referendum on immigration.

And a vote like that would be a proxy for some pretty fundamental issues of Australian identity and our place in the region.
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[*] posted on 4-12-2018 at 01:11 PM


The Liberals have not just introduced new rules raising the threshold required for a party leader to be voted out.

Granted, it will avoid much of the shit show we have seen over the last five years or so, but it also creates a similar situation to Labor, where they get stuck with an immensely unpopular leader, and have to wait for an election loss before it can be changed.

The fact these rules requiring massive majority votes to remove party leaders is even needed in the first place is a pretty damning indictment into the state of politics in this country.




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