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[*] posted on 12-6-2019 at 10:58 AM
USA Elections 2020


Biden leads Trump by 'landslide proportions' in new national poll

Jonathan Easley 4 hrs ago

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Trump by 13 points nationally, according to the latest Quinnipiac University survey.

In a national head-to-head matchup, the poll found Biden taking 53 percent against 40 percent for Trump, with the poll's assistant director describing it as a "landslide" margin.

Five other Democratic contenders also lead the president: Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) hold healthy leads over Trump, with Sanders up by 9 points, Harris ahead by 8 and Warren leading by 7.
South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) and Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) lead Trump by 5 points, with each posting a 47 to 42 split.

"It's a long 17 months to Election Day, but Joe Biden is ahead by landslide proportions," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Biden's double-digit lead over Trump is largely driven by the gender gap. The former vice president edges Trump 47 percent to 46 among men. But among women, Biden leads by 26 points, 60 to 34.

Similarly, white voters are split evenly between the two, with Trump at 47 percent and Biden at 46. But Biden leads 85 to 12 among black voters and 58 to 33 among Hispanics.

Both candidates surpass 90 percent support from within their own parties, but independents break for Biden by a 58 to 28 margin.

National polls are not necessarily the best indicator for a general election, which will be fought in a handful of swing states.

In 2020, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will be the primary battlegrounds.

Trump became the first GOP nominee since 1988 to win those three states. If the rest of the 2016 map stays the same but Democrats are able to win those back, they'll win the Electoral College.

And the Quinnipiac survey has some good news for Trump, finding that his job approval is on the rise.

"The Trump bump to 42 percent job approval is nothing to sniff at," said Malloy. "It's one point shy of the best Quinnipiac University survey number ever for President Trump."

Trump's job approval is boosted by voter optimism about the economy.

Seventy percent of Americans described the economy as "excellent" or "good." And 77 percent said their own personal financial situation is "excellent" or "good," which is close to the all-time high of 78 percent recorded in April of 2018.

Still, only 41 percent of voters said Trump deserves credit for the economy.

"A very sturdy economy and folks with money in the bank.

That's the magic combo the White House hopes to ride to reelection and those numbers remain solid," Malloy said. "But Trump does not get that much credit."

The Quinnipiac survey of the Democratic primary field finds Biden's support dipping slightly, from 35 percent in the May survey to 30 percent presently. Biden reached as high as 38 percent support in the poll shortly after launching his bid in late March.

But Biden still has a double-digit lead over Sanders, the next closest contender, at 19 percent. Warren, who has been on the rise, comes in at 15 percent, up 2 points from May.

Buttigieg is at 8 percent, up 3 points from last month, followed by Harris at 7 percent.

The Quinnipiac University survey of 1,214 voters nationwide was conducted from June 6 to June 10 and has a 3.5 percentage point margin of error. The survey of 503 Democrats has a 5.4 percentage point margin of error.
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[*] posted on 12-6-2019 at 01:34 PM


Clinton was doing the same in 2016, and we saw the results there.

I think it's way too early to make this call, the Democrats haven't even chosen a candidate.




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[*] posted on 24-8-2019 at 06:38 PM


Analysts: 2020 Election at Risk for Democrats as Groups Call for Big Military Budget Cuts

8/22/2019

By Jon Harper


Image: iStock

A coalition of liberal activists is urging Democratic presidential candidates to adopt a platform that calls for massive cuts to the military’s budget, a move that could spell disaster for the party in the 2020 election, analysts warn.

As part of an initiative they are calling “People Over Pentagon,” 22 left-leaning groups — which include Code Pink, Greenpeace USA and MoveOn.org — sent a letter to each of the Dems vying for the nomination that said: “Pentagon spending has spiraled out of control. It is long past time to eliminate excess Pentagon spending and invest the savings in urgent domestic and human needs priorities — environmental protection, education, infrastructure, health care and more — that will make the United States stronger and more just.”

The undated letters urged the candidates to support an agenda that calls for cutting annual defense expenditures by at least $200 billion, well below this year’s $716 billion budget and the $750 billion that President Donald Trump requested for fiscal year 2020.

In a recent op-ed published on the Brookings Institution’s website and in USA Today titled, “Democratic Presidential Candidates Shouldn’t Give in to Demand They Slash Defense Spending,” foreign policy analysts Michael O’Hanlon and Frank Rose said such reductions would be a big mistake from a national security perspective.

“A $200 billion cut is too much for a world with threats like today’s revanchist Russia, rising China, activist Iran and nuclearizing North Korea,” they wrote.

Calling for those types of decreases could also be politically devastating in the 2020 election, they noted, and lead to the kind of landslide defeat that Democratic nominee Sen. George McGovern, S.D., suffered against President Richard Nixon in the 1972 election and other party nominees faced against Ronald Reagan in the 1980s.

“Pressure is growing from the left of the political spectrum to take dramatically different positions from the president on matters of national security,” they wrote.

However, “Democrats should avoid the temptation to move in the kind of McGovern-like anti-defense directions that doomed the party to political setbacks starting in the 1970s — and that would allow Donald Trump to run on a Reagan-like platform of being the main candidate who favors a strong national defense,” they added.

Would the Dems really nominate another candidate who calls for slashing the military budget?

“All bets are off” because progressive candidates might be inclined to “trend towards the deep-cut position,” O’Hanlon said in an email to National Defense. “I don’t know how to handicap the race but I think the issue is up for grabs now.”
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[*] posted on 24-8-2019 at 06:43 PM


I'm personally not seeing any of the current proposed Democrat candidates as providing anything particularly inspiring, and that's really kind of depressing to realise...

The only way the Democrats will have any sort of clear cut chance is if there is a major economic downturn in the next 18 months.




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[*] posted on 24-8-2019 at 06:49 PM


Yeah, they appear to have some distinctly lacklustre options as far as Leader(s) are concerned. Then you have the whack-jobs from the Left, as shown in this article, who appear to view the Defense Budget as a fund to plunder.

WHY on Earth they think this is safe or acceptable is a mystery to me, or anyone else watching the machinations of the Chinese, Russians, Iranians etc.
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[*] posted on 24-8-2019 at 07:45 PM


Given a large enough sample size, you're bound to get the full spectrum of ideas that run the full spectrum of logic, or lack there of. The real question is why are they getting media air time.



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[*] posted on 25-8-2019 at 02:46 AM


The problem with pretty much every Democrat candidate is that they are all pushing to the hard left crazies, SJW crap and socialist garbage. None of them provide any kind of moderate sane domestic views, and in terms of foreign policy, God, I shudder to think what some of these spineless assholes will come up with and do when coming up against the likes of Xi and Vlad. These Democrat choices are all bad, insanely bad. As annoying and face palm invoking as he can be, Trump just comes across as the only sane choice when it comes to border protection, defence, economy and dealing with China and Iran.
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[*] posted on 25-8-2019 at 03:47 PM


There was a comment a Republican commentator made after the last US Election.

"All the Democrats have to do to beat Trump in 2020, is not be crazy"

Too bad they can't help themselves though.




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[*] posted on 25-8-2019 at 06:57 PM


Strange old political system, the USA. To get the nomination for president (on both sides of the aisle) you have to appeal to the party faithful at the very end of the political spectrum. However, that sort of extreme politics isn’t going to appeal to the majority in the centre that you need to vote for you in order to actually win the election. I think the Democratic nominees are going to consume each other through the primary process with a race to the left, and then be annihilated by perhaps the most unappealing incumbent president in history. It reminds me of that Simpson’s episode where Homer is beaten to the title of employee of the month by an inanimate carbon rod. If the Democrats put that rod up as their candidate, they would win in a landslide.

I’m actually going to be in the USA for the 2020 election. I think I am going to find it very interesting.
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[*] posted on 26-8-2019 at 12:49 PM


Yes, that race to the left in the Democrat primary is going to kill most of their chances to win.

That image of every Democratic candidate in one of the televised debates raising their hand when asked if they would extend health care coverage to undocumented immigrants (illegal immigrants) is practically a Trump election ad all by itself.




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